Hunger Games

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Rideback
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Re: Hunger Games

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It's fascinating to watch the research, development and now offerings of electric vehicles, especially in agriculture. John Deere has been working on electrifying their tractors and now their whole lineup.
https://www.deere.com/en/electric-equip ... ationImage
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Re: Hunger Games

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Trying to find a sliver of silver lining in the Ukraine war it has been enlightening to see the revelations of just how necessary many products from Ukraine are to the global economy, something that until the war most people were totally unaware of.
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mister_coffee
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Re: Hunger Games

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Jingles wrote: Mon Nov 07, 2022 11:47 am Could we see the return of horse and buggies and grain wagons?
Nah, bicycles are more efficient, even for hauling small loads. And bicycles are cheaper to maintain than feeding a team of horses.
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Re: Hunger Games

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Zeihan has some good points and has made some perceptive observations.

This year has been interesting because several folks I've been collaborating with in China have been forcibly in and out of contact with the outside world. I'd estimate that they have been able to Zoom me and other folks outside of China only four or five months of the year. That is very weird and the only way I can explain it is a hamfisted and kind of clueless attempt at keeping people outside of China from really knowing what is going on. What was even more humorous was up through about the end of April they were still able to contribute work even during lockdowns (different software platforms and protocols) but even that got shutdown later in the year. One can reasonably infer that China is Very Messed Up.

I do think that we have very complex and fragile supply chains for a lot of essentials, and both COVID and the Ukraine war have demonstrated just how complex and fragile those supply chains actually are. One friend of mine argues that the real engineering genius at Apple is not the cool product designs, but the engineering of the supply chain.

One interesting piece: we use Helium-Neon lasers as part of the manufacturing process for semiconductors and integrated circuits. You'll be very surprised to learn that 90 percent of the industrial neon used to make He-Ne lasers comes from Ukraine.
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Re: Hunger Games

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In addition to food and other survival necessities add in that numerous sources are predicting a major shortage of diesel fuel, which will not only affect individuals with diesel fueled vehicles but the tractor/trailers and even trains that moves supplies and farmers running equipment for planting and harvesting. Could be an interesting next couple years.
Could we see the return of horse and buggies and grain wagons?
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Re: Hunger Games

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Thinking you must be paying attention to Peter Zeihan these days.
There's also the reality we're facing of the collapse of globalization. Too many products that are necessary to the developed world are resourced from Third World countries as well as countries that have fierce political strife making them unstable. The US has taken the position since WW2 of protecting the world's seas which allowed global economies to develop. But with the strain of the elements that you mentioned at work, transporting goods across the oceans seas will become more and more problematic as the US downsizes its protections while simultaneously pirating will become more consequential, and that's not just the pirates along the African seaboard but state sponsored pirates that view cargo poorly protected as their own department store.

The climate will continue to put the squeeze on water resources as well as agriculture. It will destroy billions of dollars worth of communities, of infrastructure, forests and impact across the board. It will get worse every year. Those are the knowns.
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Hunger Games

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It is becoming increasingly obvious that, as difficult as the past couple of years have been, things are likely to only get harder over the next couple of years. We in America (and our Canadian neighbors to the north) are kind of in a "good news/bad news" situation. The good news is that we are very well situated to get through the coming years relatively lightly, the bad news is that "relatively" still is going to mean higher food prices (probably in some cases **much** higher food prices) and additional economic and supply chain mayhem. Since we live in an extremely complex world, the core problems here aren't exactly simple or sometimes even that obvious.

The first part of the core problem is the Russian-Ukraine war. This is a war between two of the world's major food exporters, and for obvious reasons the war has taken a significant portion of their food production off line. Less obvious is the fact that Russia is a major exporter of fertilizers and chemical feedstocks for fertilizers, and Ukraine is to a lesser degree. Most of their exported foodstuffs go to Africa and the Middle East. As bad as 2022 is sizing up for food production, it is likely 2023 (and onward) is going to be as bad or worse -- and that even completely stopping the war today probably won't improve matters much.

The much less obvious part is whatever is going on with China. We don't have a particularly clear view, but we can see enough that it is likely very bad. China has never really "recovered" from COVID, even by the very generous definition western countries would give. A lot of that is due to the fact that their vaccine (SinoVax) was very ineffective and even then the Chinese government wasn't willing to make the effort to get people vaccinated. So lockdowns (which include internet and cell service blackouts) are still a part of daily life there. This has gravely hampered both industrial production and food production. To the point that China has limited food exports and fertilizer exports (there's that fertilizer again). On top of that we have a major drought in their major food-producing regions. So it looks ugly.

Both Morocco and Saudi Arabia have large deposits of phosphorous, a necessary feedstock for fertilizer. However, in both countries the phosphorous is in regions with complex ethnic and political conflicts that sound like something out of Dune. And the fact that both countries will have at least some food insecurity makes it probable that both countries will suffer considerable instability.

So things are going to suck. They are going to suck a lot if you live in Africa, where people are likely going to be dying like flies. That isn't exactly accurate, however, since I suspect that the flies will be living long, healthy, and productive lives. Humans aren't going to get that chance. To a lesser extent things are likely to suck in the Middle East and Central Asia. And Latin America outside the far south doesn't look too good either.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the US and Canada are fairly well-positioned to still produce food and (barely) enough fertilizer to continue to produce food. So we here aren't likely to starve. We are likely going to have to share our good fortune with our friends in Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and (probably) Taiwan. Australia, India, and much of Southeast Asia will likely get by without much help from us. Although the definition of "get by" will vary widely between Brisbane and Delhi.

But even here things won't be easy. Right now the Mississippi river is nearly dry. While the pictures are impressive, it is important to know that we use that river both as an important water supply to grow food and also to transport barges of grain downriver. Both of those things are problematic when the river is dry.

Note that NONE of this has anything to do with Donald Trump or Joe Biden. The war in Ukraine and the mess in China are both caused by forces far outside the control of the United States government. I am sure some left-wing or right-wing talking head could make some plausible sounding hogwash about how this decision or that decision the United States made thirty years ago contributed to our current mess. But it would still be hogwash and bluntly a kind of childish arrogance thinking we were ever in a position to control everything in the first place. The forces at play in Russia and China are paying little heed to what the Americans do or think.

There is also a climate piece to this. Having major drought in the American Midwest, Western Europe, Southern China, and catastrophic floods in Pakistan and elsewhere **at the same time** isn't normal.

So what does this all mean:

(1) Less available food on the world market means higher food prices.
(2) Continued supply chain disruptions will mean higher prices for things you buy on Amazon or at Wal-Mart.
(3) A lot of political chaos, mostly in an arc from Africa to Central Asia. But probably also in Mexico and Central America.
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