General Wildfire Discussion

Information about wildfires, prescribed burns, and other fire related info for the 2021 season.
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pasayten
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by pasayten »

Interesting on development and costs of wildfire air support... Chinook @ $8000/hr...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... essweek-v2
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by PAL »

Thanks David and Chris. I am noticing that the winds have switched to the west in Little Bridge Cr. and then slightly from the SW starting at Elbow Coulee. So as you say David, this is a calculation and we do hope it does what they want. Wind driven fire however is so unpredictable as the fire, as we, know can make it's own wind.
I told a firefighter up at the house on Sat. that no house is worth losing their life over. This is after asking me if we had a basement in case they needed a place to hunker down if there was a blowover. That made me shudder.
Whenever I drive past Wood's Canyon I always think of those firefighters that lost their lives and of Daniel who was badly burned.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by Fun CH »

PAL wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:19 pm I knew you would chime in Chris. In yesteday's briefing they mentioned that they might do a back burn in the evening. I have seen a video of it from the Okanogan Highlands Fire Watch page on the evil FB.
But with a Red Flag warning, don't know if it was wise. Wind up there is out of the NW now, headed right towards Newby Cr. Granted it has to cross Twisp River Rd., so it would take a bit to get over there. Now to be fair, the video showed it crawling along the ground and not in the trees. But they kept warning about the high grasses in the old burn scar, that could take off quickly. If there are crown fires in there and a wind coming...
Well, think about it, should they be doing a controlled burn in these conditions? I don't know or necessarily think it is a backdoor deal. They are taking advantage of a situation and if they can beat this wind, then they will have accomplished much. This is a gamble. And yes, it will burn at some point even more.
I will say and I will be dragged through the mud for this, but after the rains, they could have snuffed this. The air was clear at some times. I have seen how they aggressively fought the 2014 Little Bridge Cr. fire, which is where the fire is going now, and they were able to stop it. Again, short of resources, I get that.
Have I called anyone for clarity? What kind of answer would I get? I doubt if I can call anyone that would give me a clear answer. They are all too busy.
This is all my opinion. I have a high opinion of Frankie and the incredible support people and the people on the ground. Not so much the plotters and decision makers.
I have no expertise in fighting fires, but I am observing from the past and what I hear, that it is so ding dang dry, but they continue to do this semi controlled burn.
That's enough. I am saying what other people won't say.
I actually think posts like yours offering valid concerns are important. Thanks for clarification of your comments. However direct communication with those in charge would also help as perhaps they are not reading these posts.

Like you, I question those who are making the decisions all the time. After all its those policy decision makers that have gotten us into this mess in the first place. And it would not be the first time that a controlled burn backfired.

I talked with a fire fighter on the fire in your area that claimed the lives of three firefighters and badly burned a fourth. I also read the incident report.

I was informed that a change of wind direction was forecast to occur that day and that's exactly what happened. But there they were in a box canyon with a poorly planned road trying to save property.

Its sad and I can't imagine having to live with a decision that cost someone their lives, however no property is worth the cost of someone's life.

That firefighter, who quit working for the Forest Service, also described to me a lack of training for new firefighters. After one year he felt he was totally on his own.

Its clear that a lack of communication between those making the decisions is still prevalent.

We the public whose health and safety are affected by those decision-makers need to know the reasoning for the necessity for an action as well as what is actually happening on the ground. It is getting better but always room for improvement.

For example it was only recently we learned details for the reason why highway20 continues to be closed.

So keep on questioning Authority. If we don't do it nobody else will.

Side note:

I've been trying for a long time to get the FS to embrace what is called safety culture. Direct sincere email letters to the FS concerning this issue have been met with threats by the new district ranger that my emails would end up in the trash.

He does not want me to CC the Forest Supervisor, his boss, with my concerns. The 'FS no significant impact' determination tool that bypasses public comment for a project needs to disappear.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by mister_coffee »

I don't know because I am no expert, but if you look at historical wind data the significant winds yesterday (and they were pretty light) were out of the S and E. The red flag warning today calls for strong winds out of the W.

So in all probability if things go okay the high winds today will blow the burnouts back on themselves where they will have already consumed most of the fuel.

That is if everything goes right, and I suspect that is what they planned for. I do not know if it was a good or bad decision and wouldn't want to make that decision myself.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by PAL »

Just watched the morning brief. Frankie acknowledges the red flag day and wind. Burn out was successful on Little Bridge Cr. Although Caltopo showd spillover, but it is not 100% accurate. Says that this could be a worse day then we've seen and the communities of Twisp and Winthrop could be threatened.
Following the brief people commented that they wondered if it was a good idea to keep doing this "controlled" burn with these predicted winds.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by PAL »

I knew you would chime in Chris. In yesteday's briefing they mentioned that they might do a back burn in the evening. I have seen a video of it from the Okanogan Highlands Fire Watch page on the evil FB.
But with a Red Flag warning, don't know if it was wise. Wind up there is out of the NW now, headed right towards Newby Cr. Granted it has to cross Twisp River Rd., so it would take a bit to get over there. Now to be fair, the video showed it crawling along the ground and not in the trees. But they kept warning about the high grasses in the old burn scar, that could take off quickly. If there are crown fires in there and a wind coming...
Well, think about it, should they be doing a controlled burn in these conditions? I don't know or necessarily think it is a backdoor deal. They are taking advantage of a situation and if they can beat this wind, then they will have accomplished much. This is a gamble. And yes, it will burn at some point even more.
I will say and I will be dragged through the mud for this, but after the rains, they could have snuffed this. The air was clear at some times. I have seen how they aggressively fought the 2014 Little Bridge Cr. fire, which is where the fire is going now, and they were able to stop it. Again, short of resources, I get that.
Have I called anyone for clarity? What kind of answer would I get? I doubt if I can call anyone that would give me a clear answer. They are all too busy.
This is all my opinion. I have a high opinion of Frankie and the incredible support people and the people on the ground. Not so much the plotters and decision makers.
I have no expertise in fighting fires, but I am observing from the past and what I hear, that it is so ding dang dry, but they continue to do this semi controlled burn.
That's enough. I am saying what other people won't say.
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by Fun CH »

PAL wrote: Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:49 am If anyone is looking at CALtopo, you will notice all the hotspots down at the Little Bridge Cr. road. The fire did not just jump down there. They are firing it off. There is absolutely no wind here, none, nada. This is a red flag day, hello. This is a semi controlled burn experiment. There have been many many logging trucks going down all week long plus. This is a good thing, with thinning going on too. But the FS got what they wanted. The Twisp Restoration Project on steroids. With the bulldozing of ridgetops, logging and thinning. I do not begrudge the firefighters on the ground, working their asses off and yes, they will and have protected properties. No, it's the powers that be. They've done an excellant job at Gobbler's Knob.
And it's great, maybe the grasses are getting burned off today, that they have been concerned about, but again a RED FLAG day. And ok, maybe they are trying to beat the wind. But no air support can come in here now at all.
Ok, I've vented, said some things maybe I shouldn't have. But people have to know that this fire did not just jump down there. I live 3 miles away. I know.
Pearl
are you saying that you're not happy with the controlled burn in your area (because red flag warning)and not happy trees that have the potential to burn are being logged in kind of a FS back door deal that bypasses normal procedures for such activity?

Have you called anyone to seek clairity?
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Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by PAL »

If anyone is looking at CALtopo, you will notice all the hotspots down at the Little Bridge Cr. road. The fire did not just jump down there. They are firing it off. There is absolutely no wind here, none, nada. This is a red flag day, hello. This is a semi controlled burn experiment. There have been many many logging trucks going down all week long plus. This is a good thing, with thinning going on too. But the FS got what they wanted. The Twisp Restoration Project on steroids. With the bulldozing of ridgetops, logging and thinning. I do not begrudge the firefighters on the ground, working their asses off and yes, they will and have protected properties. No, it's the powers that be. They've done an excellant job at Gobbler's Knob.
And it's great, maybe the grasses are getting burned off today, that they have been concerned about, but again a RED FLAG day. And ok, maybe they are trying to beat the wind. But no air support can come in here now at all.
Ok, I've vented, said some things maybe I shouldn't have. But people have to know that this fire did not just jump down there. I live 3 miles away. I know.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by Fun CH »

PAL wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:43 am Thanks Chris. I love this kind of article. I wanted to major in psychology so I am very interested in this. Plus, for myself, I need to look at my behavior and practice awareness. And remain calm and not in denial. In the heat of the moment not always easy. I must say, when we evacuated I did not go into a panic, which is growth for me. I just knew we had to get out of here and fairly quickly. That sound, the sound of the wind and fire. Haunting. I'm sure you may know it too. Chills.
yea, I didn't think you were panicked because you had a skillet to wash before you were evacuated. :D

I posted that because you stated that you were "uneasy" about the tall grass in the old burn areas.

Translate that feeling into action. Is there anything else you can do to prepare?

I have concerns about where the Cub Creek fire is headed. Because of the recent rain, I was able to recut a fire break around my home down to dirt even though the fire is many miles away.

Quote: "Plus, for myself, I need to look at my behavior and practice awareness". End quote

We all do. Its why even First Responders practice emergency situations.

I find that how I react to an emergency depends on how immediate the perceived threat appears to be to my person.

When I almost was in the path of a massive Rock fall while spring skiing my reaction was to get out of there fast to avoid any further rock fall. But you can't let panic interfere with that flight response or panic may cause you to react inappropriately for the given situation..

Driving too fast for a while trying to evacuate might be an inappropriate response that could lead to an accident.

Another example was when I watched a ski partner disappear in the white cloud of an avalanche.

Because the immediate threat of danger didn't directly effect me, a calm set in and my training kicked in. That calm allowed me to assess the situation in order to mitigate any further harm to the victim or myself and begin the rescue action.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by PAL »

Thanks Chris. I love this kind of article. I wanted to major in psychology so I am very interested in this. Plus, for myself, I need to look at my behavior and practice awareness. And remain calm and not in denial. In the heat of the moment not always easy. I must say, when we evacuated I did not go into a panic, which is growth for me. I just knew we had to get out of here and fairly quickly. That sound, the sound of the wind and fire. Haunting. I'm sure you may know it too. Chills.
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by Fun CH »

PAL wrote: Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:25 am Very sodden up at our place, 6 miles up Twisp River. Saw quite a bit of lightning to the south, a fair distance away around 10:30 pm. Rained some more.
This will help, but from listening to the recorded meeting last night, I became a bit uneasy when they were talking about the tall grasses in the Twisp River fire burn scar up Little Bridge Cr. I guess they are in there creating some kind of line?
Didn't go to the meeting, as we just got back home, hopefully for good.
Thanks for all the updates here, once again.
Pearl
here is a good link that discusses how we often respond to emergency situations that may hinder our preparedness.

CERC: Psychology of a Crisis - CDC Emergency Preparedness

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... dMPOOOsfcr

Here's a quote:

"We simplify messages

Under intense stress and possible information overload, we tend to miss the nuances of health and safety messages by doing the following:
■ Not fully hearing information because of our inability to juggle multiple facts during a crisis.
■ Not remembering as much of the information as we normally could.
■ Misinterpreting confusing action messages.

To cope, many of us may not attempt a logical and reasoned approach to decision making. Instead, we may rely on habits and long-held practices. We might
follow bad examples set by others"
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by PAL »

Very sodden up at our place, 6 miles up Twisp River. Saw quite a bit of lightning to the south, a fair distance away around 10:30 pm. Rained some more.
This will help, but from listening to the recorded meeting last night, I became a bit uneasy when they were talking about the tall grasses in the Twisp River fire burn scar up Little Bridge Cr. I guess they are in there creating some kind of line?
Didn't go to the meeting, as we just got back home, hopefully for good.
Thanks for all the updates here, once again.
Pearl
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by TraciHa »

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Re: Davis Lake - anyone know what is going on?

Post by pasayten »

TraciHa wrote: Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:46 pm Friends live out there, is it spotting or from lightning??? :o
Small lightning strike fire... couple of acres... They hit it hard with a copter and crews are on it forming lines around it. Looking like it may be under control. Was on top of hillside south and east of the lake. More pics on Methow Valley Fire Infi facebook page.
P8030275.jpg
P8030277.jpg
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fire256.png
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Davis Lake - anyone know what is going on?

Post by TraciHa »

Update
Lightning fires: new
Davis Lake, south Hwy 20
Lost River area, north Hwy 20
Pleasant Valley, east on Hwy 20
Okanogan
https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3 ... FA3xPSft3M
Last edited by TraciHa on Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by pasayten »

Should hopefully have new fire perimeters by 6am... I have noticed different communication levels and timing by each incident team that comes online thru these fires. Latest Cub Creek is very good.
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by TraciHa »

Evening, any Cedar Creek progression maps or IR more current than these posted? Any status on the north push below Gobblers Knob??
why is Cub Creek more regular and detailed? Its hard to continually modulate my information processing

Seems like there would be a standardized information protocol
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by Fun CH »

Capture+_2021-08-02-19-41-59.png
Fun CH wrote: Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:39 am It would be interesting if someone were to over lay the current fire perimeter maps with hot spot information over that 20 year fire map. ( I don't have that computer skill)
here's a map that show fire perimeter from August 1st with old burn areas. Its a screen capture so detail might be fuzzy. Wasn't able to down load the map.


https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/43 ... f71212afae
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Re: Wildfire Discussion - Global Imaging tools

Post by TraciHa »

I have used many available imagery links studying weather and earthquake behaviors, and like this one the best. Many options and combination tools..easy to use also.
Warning: time flys by
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by mister_coffee »

You aren't kidding about remote.

I don't think the Chilliwack River trail downstream from the Copper Ridge trail all the way to Chilliwack Lake has been maintained for many years. My understanding was that the primary users of that trail were folks smuggling marijuana.

Although there is a spectacular sockeye salmon run out of Chilliwack Lake in August that is a real impressive sight.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by pasayten »

North Cascades National Park Service Complex

News Release: Bear Creek Fire
A large fire is active in the Chilliwack area in North Cascades National Park. The Bear Creek Fire was detected Friday morning and is about 100 acres and growing.
Firefighters are assessing the fire for opportunities to safely engage. The fire is in a remote area of the Stephen Mather Wilderness with steep terrain and a heavy, low-moisture fuel load as the result of an abnormally dry, hot summer.
Park officials have closed portions of the Copper Ridge and Chilliwack trails due to the fire’s proximity. The Copper Ridge Trail is closed from Copper Lookout to the junction with the Chilliwack Trail. The Chilliwack Trail is closed from the junction of Brush Creek Trail to terminus. Copper Lake, Bear Creek, Indian Creek, and Little Chilliwack camps are also closed.
The cause of the fire is under investigation.
If you see smoke or flames dial 911 or report to a park visitor or information center. Contact the Wilderness Information Center for trail information at, 360-854-7245.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by mister_coffee »

Rightside up:
properly oriented image from previous post
properly oriented image from previous post
chris.png (133.88 KiB) Viewed 19574 times
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by Fun CH »

Edit; thanks David for rotating that picture to its correct orientation. I tried it a few times and it didn't work.
Last edited by Fun CH on Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wildfire Discussion

Post by mister_coffee »

This looks like the Boulder Creek Road:

Image

Image from https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/07/29/bi ... ed-report/.
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Re: Cedar Creek/Delancy/Cub Creek Fires

Post by TraciHa »

Sharing comfort of song to friends, neighbors and the heros all
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Er2dORjdKhA
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