The status of Ukraine

Post Reply
User avatar
mister_coffee
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:35 pm
Location: Winthrop, WA
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by mister_coffee »

There are lots of crazy rumors flying around.

Ukrainian MOD is reporting that they are in talks with certain units in the Kherson region to surrender and lay down their arms. I don't know if that is true or not but I am certain it will certainly spook any Rushka in Kherson who aren't talking about surrendering.

Russian Telegram has reports of Russian soldiers fleeing towns like Lyman, Svatove, and Kreminna which don't appear to be under Ukrainian attack and indeed appear to be many kilometers from any Ukrainians army units.

In Izyum there are claims that a cache of nuclear weapons were found.

Also on Russian Telegram there are claims that another Ukrainian attack in the south, towards Mariupol, is about to begin.

While a lot of things are not at all clear, what is 100 percent clear is that the Russian civilian government and the Russian military chain of command are in a state of utter chaos at the moment. The very best thing the Ukrainians and their allies can do right now is keep them in a state of chaos.

Also, on prematurely celebrating: yes, this victory will probably not win the war by itself, which is in all probability far from over. But it is still a victory and I hope the people in Ukraine celebrate it properly. Collapses like this are contagious and if the Ukrainians can kick loose some more forces and attack somewhere else they will have a very good chance of producing another rout like the one around Kharkiv. If the Ukrainians can manage that before the Russians bring their people back under command and before they can somehow stabilize the lines in the northeast then the Ukrainians will be a long way towards winning this war.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
Rideback
Posts: 1778
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:53 am
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by Rideback »

Amid Ukraine’s startling gains, liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing.
Robyn Dixon~The Washington Post
September 11, 2022 at 7:12 p.m. CT
ZALIZNYCHNE, Ukraine — In the end, the Russians fled any way they could on Friday, on stolen bicycles, disguised as locals. Hours after Ukrainian soldiers poured into the area, hundreds of Russian soldiers encamped in this village were gone, many after their units abandoned them, leaving behind stunned residents to face the ruins of 28 weeks of occupation.
“They just dropped rifles on the ground,” Olena Matvienko said Sunday as she stood, still disoriented, in a village littered with ammo crates and torched vehicles, including a Russian tank loaded on a flatbed. The first investigators from Kharkiv had just pulled in to collect the bodies of civilians shot by Russians, some that have been lying exposed for months.
“I can’t believe that we went through something like this in the 21st century,” Matvienko said, tears welling.
The hasty flight of Russians from the village was part of a stunning new reality that took the world by surprise over the weekend: The invaders of February are on the run in some parts of Ukraine they seized early in the conflict.
The Russian Defense Ministry’s own daily briefing Sunday featured a map showing Russian forces retreating behind the Oskil river on the eastern edge of the Kharkiv region — a day after the ministry confirmed its troops had left the Balakliya and Izyum area in the Kharkiv region, following a decision to “regroup.”
On Sunday, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Valery Zaluzhny, said Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 3,000 square kilometers (more than 1,100 square miles) of territory, a claim that could not be independently verified, adding that they were advancing to the east, south and north.
“Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places,” reported the Institute for the Study of War, which closely tracks the conflict. They have captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April,” its campaign assessment posted Sunday said.
The apparent collapse of the Russian forces has caused shock waves in Moscow. The leader of the Chechen republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, who sent his own fighters to Ukraine, said if there are not immediate changes in Russia’s conduct of the invasion, “he would have to contact the leadership of the country to explain to them the real situation on the ground.”
Evidence of the Ukrainian gains continued to emerge Sunday, with images of Ukrainian soldiers raising a flag in central Izyum, after it was abandoned by Russian forces, and similar images from other towns and villages such as Kindrashivka, Chkalovske and Velyki Komyshuvakha.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declined to elaborate on his army’s next moves, except to say in a CNN interview, “We will not be standing still. We will be slowly, gradually moving forward.”
In a forceful statement to Russia on Sunday night, Zelensky insisted the invaders would be expelled. “Read my lips,” he said. “Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you. Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as scary and deadly for us as your ‘friendship and brotherhood.’ ”
Ukrainians emerged into the string of just-liberated villages southeast of Kharkiv hailing the end of their ordeal, and wondering whether it is truly over. “Only God knows if they will be back,” said Tamara Kozinska, 75, whose husband was killed by a mortar blast soon after the Russians arrived.
It is not over by any means, military experts warned. Russia still holds about a fifth of Ukraine and continued heavy shelling over the weekend across several regions. And nothing guarantees that Ukraine can keep recaptured areas secure. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov cautioned in an interview with the Financial Times.
But as Ukrainian soldiers continued Sunday to sweep deeper into territory that had been held by Russia, more of them were willing to see the campaign as a possible turning point.
In Zaliznychne, a tiny agricultural village 37 miles east of Kharkiv, residents were feeling their way back to normality Sunday, sleeping in bedrooms rather than basements for the first time in months and trying to make contact with family on the outside.
Kozinska hasn’t seen her daughter since February — even though she lives 12 miles away — but had just received word that she will come to pick her up as soon as officials open access to the village, just as the weather turns cold.
“I have been so scared about winter,” said the woman with lung problems, clutching a just-distributed paper giving her a number to call if she finds a land mine. “We have no power and it’s hard for me to collect firewood.”
The first Russian soldiers who set up in the village, turning the sawmill into their base and launching rocket attacks at Ukrainian troops in the next town, had at first not harassed the residents, she said. When they shot pigs on an abandoned farm, they sometimes let residents butcher some of the meat.
[One young Ukrainian soldier’s death felt by family, friends and country]
But as the occupation ground on, with the Russians rotating out every month, the troops became more aggressive. One of them asked to borrow Kozinska’s phone. “I gave it to him so he could call his mother, but he took my SIM card,” she said.
One of the medics treated Halyna Noskova’s back after she was hit by mortar shrapnel in her front yard in June. Her 87-year mother pulled out the metal shard. “It was still hot,” she said. The Russian bandaged her up.
“They helped me, but I’m glad we are liberated,” said Noskova, 66.
The residents, all of whom are Russian speaking in this region adjacent to the Russian border, described treatment generally more humane than that experienced by occupied communities farther to the west.
The discovery of more than 450 bodies in Bucha, near Kyiv — many showing signs of torture — set off international outrage over atrocities.
“They were not monsters, they were kids,” said Matvienko, who once asked Russian troops to move the tank they parked in front of her house. “I asked what they wanted from us and they said, ‘We can either be here or we can be in jail.’ ”
Others told the villagers they weren’t there to fight Ukraine, but to “protect us from America.”
The Russians’ biggest rule for residents was to get inside by 6 p.m. and stay there, quiet and in the dark, several said. Violating that order could be fatal, as two men on the street learned early on. The friends were drinking and had a light on, said Maria Grygorova, who lives in the attached house next door. The next morning she found them on the floor.
“Konstiantyn had two bullet holes in his head,” she said.
She and two friends buried them in the side yard. The same two friends dug them up Sunday, with Ukrainian war crimes investigators looking on.
The team from Kharkiv collected two other bodies during their visit, including a security guard whose remains have been rotting on the floor of a gravel elevator at an asphalt plant for months, even as the Russians used it as a sniper tower. One investigator vomited over a guardrail repeatedly as officers collected the remains.
“We’re here looking into war crimes,” said Serhii Bolvinov, chief investigator of the Kharkiv Regional Police, as his crew waited on demining techs to clear one area of explosives before they could recover some of the bodies.
The residents were scared of the Russians, several village residents said. But they almost pitied them in their scramble to escape the recent Ukrainian onslaught.
Half of the soldiers fled in their vehicles in the first hours of the offensive, they said. Those stranded grew desperate. Some residents overheard their radio pleas to unit commanders for someone to come get them.
“They said, ‘You’re on your own,’ ” Matvienko recounted. “They came into our houses to take clothes so the drones wouldn’t see them in uniforms. They took our bicycles. Two of them pointed guns at my ex-husband until he handed them his car keys.”
Buoyant Ukrainian officials said they would no longer negotiate a peace deal that would let Russia keep an occupying presence in any territory, even in Crimea and part of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Russia or Russian-backed separatists for years.
“The point of no return has passed,” Reznikov, the defense minister, said at the Yalta European Strategy summit in Kyiv on Saturday.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday seemed to backtrack on his previous assertion that the time wasn’t right for peace negotiations, as Russia was preparing to stage a round of sham referendums meant to annex occupied territories.
“We are not against the talks; we are not refusing the talks,” Lavrov said on the state TV program, “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.” Rather, “Those who refuse should understand that the longer they delay this process, the more difficult it will be to negotiate.”
Robyn Dixon reported from Riga, Latvia. Mary Ilyushina in Riga and Isabelle Khurshudyan in Kyiv contributed to this report.
Rideback
Posts: 1778
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:53 am
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by Rideback »

The morale of the Russian soldiers is in the dumpster and getting worse by the hour. A good rundown of what to look for and why it's not yet time to celebrate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAD684eczq8
User avatar
mister_coffee
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:35 pm
Location: Winthrop, WA
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by mister_coffee »

From the Institute for the Study of War ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ptember-11 ):
The Ukrainian pressure in Kherson combined with the rapid counter-offensive in Kharkiv presents the Russians with a terrible dilemma of time and space. Russia likely lacks sufficient reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defensive line along the Oskil River, as it is reportedly trying to do before Ukrainian forces continue their advance through that position if they so choose. Prudence would demand that Russia pull forces from other sectors of the battlespace to establish defensive lines further east than the Oskil River to ensure that it can hold the Luhansk Oblast border or a line as close to that border as possible. But Russian troops around Bakhmut and near Donetsk City continue offensive operations as if unaware of the danger to Luhansk, and Russian forces in Kherson still face attack and the threat of more attacks on that axis. Russian President Vladimir Putin risks making a common but deadly mistake by waiting too long to order reinforcements to the Luhansk line, thereby compromising the defense of Kherson or ending offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City without getting troops into position to defend against continuing Ukrainian attacks in Luhansk in time. The Ukrainian campaign appears intended to present Putin with precisely such a dilemma and to benefit from almost any decision he makes.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
just-jim
Posts: 614
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:24 pm
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by just-jim »

Very good NPR interview with General Milley, Chair of the Joint Chiefs - from Friday 9/9.
I think he’s a pretty sharp guy, and seems straight up….

He discusses why Ukraine is in a great defensive position. And how Russia is having to ‘buy back’ older equipment they have sold Noth Korea - since nothing else is available to them.

Short, maybe 5 minutes. With transcript:

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/09/11219511 ... h-russia-o
User avatar
mister_coffee
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:35 pm
Location: Winthrop, WA
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by mister_coffee »

Sounds like some big changes are going on right now. Looks to me like there is a general collapse of Rushka forces in the northeast of Ukraine.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
Rideback
Posts: 1778
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:53 am
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by Rideback »

Good news that Russia is being forced into a responsive stance. Ukraine's morale is still high despite the massive attacks while Russia's military leaders are faced with depleted forces and nowhere for them to go.
User avatar
mister_coffee
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:35 pm
Location: Winthrop, WA
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by mister_coffee »

From the Institute for the Study of War ( https://www.understandingwar.org/ ):
Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. Russian forces are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to Kherson and western Zaporizhia Oblasts at the expense of their efforts to seize Slovyansk and Siversk, which they appear to have abandoned. Russian forces are also redeploying military equipment – artillery and aviation in particular – to Crimea from elsewhere in Ukraine. Russian forces have previously withdrawn from or suspended offensive operations on Kharkiv City and the southern axis to prioritize capturing Luhansk Oblast, but they did so on their own initiative based on the changing priorities of their commanders. Russian forces in this case appear to be responding to the Ukrainian counteroffensive threat in Kherson Oblast rather than deliberately choosing objectives on which to concentrate their efforts. Even after Ukrainian forces defeated the Russian attempt to seize Kyiv early in the war, the Russians were able to choose freely to concentrate their operations in the east. Ukraine’s preparations for the counteroffensive in Kherson and the initial operations in that counteroffensive combined with the dramatic weakening of Russian forces generally appear to be allowing Ukraine to begin actively shaping the course of the war for the first time.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
User avatar
mister_coffee
Posts: 1388
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:35 pm
Location: Winthrop, WA
Contact:

Re: The status of Ukraine

Post by mister_coffee »

Mostly correct and all very reasonable sounding.

The Ukrainians might have a big opportunity in the Kherson region in the coming weeks to bag an entire Rushka field army. Which wouldn't do a lot of good for the already poor morale of the Russian army.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests