Election Prediction

[Jingles]

I can’t predict, but.

Over the last couple years we have used the existing pool a total of 6 times when our grandkids came to visit.

I’m not thinking that justifies the large increase in property taxes we will have to shoulder. There are, as we all know, lakes and rivers. We don’t need an “aquatic district”.

Would it be nice for the swim team to have an indoor pool? Sure. But not on the backs of hardworking and senior property owners.

If Prop 1 and the hospital levy both go through I don’t know what will become of those of us with fixed income. We worked very, very hard to get to this point in our lives, and I don’t want to lose it.

Can honestly say that in the33 years we have live here our family and extended family have not used the pool but maybe 1/2 dz times have used the lakes and rivers though.

If both Prop 1's pass as much as I hate to say it but there will probably be a place in Winthrop go on the market, as with a fixed income better to sell and at least get something to start over with elsewhere than loose everything, WY and SD are both looking inviting

[Shelley]

I can’t predict, but.

Over the last couple years we have used the existing pool a total of 6 times when our grandkids came to visit.

I’m not thinking that justifies the large increase in property taxes we will have to shoulder. There are, as we all know, lakes and rivers. We don’t need an “aquatic district”.

Would it be nice for the swim team to have an indoor pool? Sure. But not on the backs of hardworking and senior property owners.

If Prop 1 and the hospital levy both go through I don’t know what will become of those of us with fixed income. We worked very, very hard to get to this point in our lives, and I don’t want to lose it.

[Fun CH]

Might have happened without the Against Proposition 1 campaign and informing the voters...

Yes that's the scary part. With a potential $65 million dollar debt limit, $2 million per year property tax revenue and the ability to ask voters for another levy increase, the prop 1 Metropolitan Park District really would be a blank check.

And after the Mega MAC is complete and that big properly tax increase burden hits many hard, it's on to the next recreational projects.

None of that was well defined by the FOP or FOP PAC. Wonder why? Could it be all that money?

[pasayten]

Ahhh... Satire... I love it...

Might have happened without the Against Proposition 1 campaign and informing the voters...
Thanks to all that contributed to the campaign...

[Fun CH]

Prop 1 will pass 53% to 47%

The hospital levy vote in our school district will fail, but maybe not in the hospital district so that may pass.

We're are looking at a $2.14 per $1000 dollar increase in our property taxes next year.

So for a home that is valued at $500,000, get ready to fork over a extra $1070 in taxes.

The MAC MPD will find they need to issue more bonds debt in 2024 to complete the Mega MAC because donations and available grant money will fall way short.

With the $7 million in non voter approved debt already spent after buying the land they will ask voters to borrow another $25million. They will say we only have the land and have paid the architect his million and our children really want those sliding walls and climbing gym. That voter approved debt will pass and another .75 per $1000 will be added to our tax bill.

So now that $500,000 home will cost $1445
per year. In 30 years you will have paid $43,000 extra in taxes if home values don't go up in those 30 years. So realistically say $65,000- $80,000 in extra taxes on top of the $150,000 you paid in regular taxes.

The good news is that there are buyers waiting to buy your home now and I hear you can still get a good deal on a home in BumF nowhere.

That's my prediction, good luck everyone .

[PAL]

I like the numbers Steve and Ray give. Originally I had heard FOTP was not going to try again. Then I heard different. What I want to see is no Recreation District. This is not Disneyland. What they can't seem to understand in various letters to the editor that they keep saying it's more fair to have it on the backs of the property owners, then everyone shares in the cost. Nope. Property owners pay directly and granted, non property owners do pay, through other increases as has been said. If they try again, I guess we need to make sure we go to their meetings and show there is not widespread support of an indoor pool or Rec District.
It is interesting Jingles as you point out who has signs in their yards. But some "old timers" do support the Prop 1. Depends on the definition of old timer.
As an aside at one time I toyed with the idea of showing people how they can walk the land for free by going on animal tracks and find their way in the forest. But then I thought, wait a minute, I don't want to reveal our "secret trails" or boot tracks around the Valley.
Recreation does not have to be paid for. Of course for those who want to ice skate, safely, or trail ski, then people choose to pay.
Prop 1 will be defeated.
What say you about the hospital levy? If it goes through that is $1.39/1000 which the ballot did not state. It was in the voter's pamphlet however.

[Jingles]

Not making a prediction, can only vote and hope reasonable minds prevail, but feel can safely say if Prop1 fails they FOTP will be back and try again with a vengeance, and it might be better for a reasonably thinking group to beat them to the punch and come up with a better, more reasonable plan / program. Something with an expiration or renewal date and Elected Board of Directors that requires voter approval.
And tothink this would not even be an issue had they left the pool in when building the HS. Guess hindsight is 20/20

On a side note in driving around the valley can tell who the newbies are and who the "oldtimers" are by which sign is in their yard.
Newbies want everyone to pay for their fun, and the old-timer say pay your own way

[pasayten]

40% for 60% against

considering all the trunk or treaters I saw tonight and the misinformation from FOTP and their pleadings of "for the kids" effect...

The big question will be what does FOTP do after their defeat...
Whine and quit? (their "yes or no" to pool statements)...
Or will they learn and seek better alternatives for scale, funding, and maint of a pool for the kids and community of the Methow Valley?
One that is rightsized... one that honors and is accountable to long term voter/taxpayer input... one that considers tax impacts on fixed income seniors and low income families.

FOTP spent $15,200 of their donated funds on this campaign that could have been used to support the Wagner Pool... I wonder how the community feels about the expenditures of their donated funds?

[SOulman]

Ballots are in homes and are being returned. November 7 is a few days away.

What will be the result of Proposition 1?

An emerging field combining public policy and economics suggests that crowd-sourcing or betting markets is a reasonable way to measure public policy outcomes. In other words, betting on outcomes with a sufficiently large pool of participants is perhaps more accurate than traditional polling methods. In theory, a sufficient number of people with "skin in the game" can reasonably forecast outcomes on a variety of issues.

I am not suggesting a betting pool, but it would be interesting to see how a number of predictions compare with actual election outcomes. Obviously, this discussion board has a small audience and does not reflect the broader community. I, for one, would be curious to see how predictions ultimately line up with the actual vote count.

I will start.

35% in favor / 65% against.

This was my estimate early this summer in a dinner table conversation. My prediction reflects recognition that the proposal is more specific than the 2014 measure and that demographics of the valley have changed since then. The counter-argument is that the measure is confusing and without a meaningful objective.

What say you?


________

Steve Oulman