the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

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Fun CH
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by Fun CH »

alfrandell wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:51 am i hear a slight buzz....
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What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
Fun CH
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by Fun CH »

alfrandell wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:09 am
Attacking me via my past, and claiming that all of my best work is clearly behind me.
nice work buddy!
Yea, that's not what I was doing and not what I was claiming.
alfrandell wrote: Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:09 am
yea, i had 2 proteges during my rock climbing, but i was so self centered that i was unable to imbue them with a strong survival sense. One died by falling from a great hight while unroped, and the other was buried in an avalanch and had to be pinned back together.
Thanks for sharing one of your "lessons learned" stories. Here's one of mine.

Around 15 years ago at the Early Winters TH an early 20's outward bound instructor kid (skier 4)asked to join our group of three on a new snow storm day. Not wanting to hurt his feelings by rejecting him we reluctantly said yes.

After a grueling deep trail breaking climb, at the top of the "Powder Cache" a heavily wind loaded area was identified in the start zone of the main gully Avalanche path. Noted as a place to avoid.

One the second lap, after the OB kid (skier 4) skied away from the group on the first lap, we again discussed that hazardous area. Stay out of that gully was the warning and everyone acknowledged it.

Second lap off the top, one member of the group (skier 2) skied a low angle line skiers left of the gully which continues into rocky steep terrain. I watched him as a safety spotter and he triggered a propagating crack that ran along the fall line next to the Gully.

The third member (skier 3) of our core original group was heading over to the skier right side of the gully and from my spot (skier 1)I could see her intended descent line.

As that all happened, the young Outward Bound instructor _skier 4)skied behind me where I was stopped and I yelled for him to stop also, but he kept going. At that point, watching him I could no longer observe the other two members (2&3) of our group.

The OB kid (skier 4)and I discussed taking a separate route from the other two at the top, but here he was going off on his own again above another skier (skier 2) in Avalanche terrain with unstable snow lurking about (spacial variability).

The OB kid (skier 4) finally did stop after two turns however we both had to climb a bit without skins to regain our intended decent line off the ridge.

For me it was a few short steps and I know how to climb in deep snow without skins. He had a little farther to travel and was having trouble and getting frustrated but he finally regained the ridge where all he needed to do was traverse over to me.

He was doing that but his frustration continued.

Then he pushed off to try to use gravity to make the Traverse but wound up right in wind loaded area.

I saw the snow slab starting to crack
And yelled for him to get out of there. He turned his skis down the fall line and almost made it to the side of the Gully. But the ensuing Avalanche hit him in a big cloud of snow smoke and down the gully he went.

Six to ten seconds later he yelled that he was OK. He was filtered out of the Avalanche by a couple of large trees at the bottom of the Gully. He said his hip hurt but he was fine otherwise except, the Avalanche which almost hit my two friends below took his skis and one pole.

Luckily for him one of my friends below was a very good tracker and was able to track those skis and found both of them. That saved the OB kid from walking out in two feet of recent new snow (waist deep), in the dark and possibly hypothermia as the snow became wet (cascade concrete)for the last 800 vertical feet.

That OB kid (skier 4) was lucky and for the rest of the almost 3500 foot descent he stuck to me like glue.

But he could have just as easily been carried out in a body bag. It would have been better to hurt his feelings on such a dangerous day to be out.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
Fun CH
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by Fun CH »

alfrandell wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:42 am one can read the infection numbers themselves.
also, one can note that shopkeepers are now sick.
Infection numbers + shop keepers sick = fire fighters infected this valley with Covid. That's just not logical.

Earlier you posted that the firefighters were sacrificing Wolf Creek in order to save Sun Mountain Lodge which of course never happened.

Again, what is the goal of making these allegations against the firefighters who risked their lives to save this Valley from certain destruction?

Keep in mind that Covid, the fire season, smoke, living and financial concerns all tax on our coping mechanisms which leads to increased stress.

I recommend taking a long break from social media and seek out your roots before social media became a thing in your life.

You once did good work as a rock climbing mentor.

Perhaps volunteer to teach people to climb at fun rocks?

Try to be a positive influence on this Methow community.

There is light at the end of a long stressful tunnel. Both the vaccinated and people who have acquired natural immunity have contributed to the goal of ending this pandamic.

We did this together. That should be a source of pride and accomplishment.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by Fun CH »

mister_coffee wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:13 am
What matters is what percentage of the whole population is fully vaccinated.
you have to add the percentage of people who have acquired natural immunity to the percentage of people who have been vaccinated to be accurate.

But I know, it doesn't serve your agenda to be accurate.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by mister_coffee »

Full vaccination rates in the Valley (from https://okanogancountycovid19.org/covid-19-data/ ):

Winthrop: 71.2%
Twisp: 61.0%
Mazama: 62.0%
Carlton: 65.5%

Remember that Brewster has a full vaccination rate of 93.3%, but that is almost certainly an overcount.

The good news is that covid rates, on the average, appear to drop when more than seventy percent of the population is fully vaccinated. You can see that clearly around the San Francisco Bay area, in places like the San Juan Islands, and places like West Feliciana Parish in Louisiana (80.3% fully vaccinated) which came through the delta wave relatively unscathed. There are, of course, exceptions and confusing outliers but that seems to be the general trend. Sixty percent vaccination rates just aren't going to cut it.

Source: https://covidactnow.org/

Also, a lot of sites overstate vaccinations as a percentage of those eligible and count partial vaccinations. What matters is what percentage of the whole population is fully vaccinated.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
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Re: the fire this summer has provided something like the apple workers super spreader effect

Post by Fun CH »

Please provide some actual facts to support your assertions here.

Otherwise it's just more of the same BS.

I don't think it severs any purpose to blame agricultural workers or firefighters for spreading Covid to local communities.

Its not us vs them, its us vs the virus..

What exactly is your goal here Alf?
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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