The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

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Fun CH
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Re: The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by Fun CH »

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... -we-so-bad

"We hear valid warnings about threats to our survival because of our Carbon Footprint. Global warming is finally being addressed by many individuals and governments (not ours!) with concerted efforts to stave off these cataclysms. But there is another dangerous human footprint we are not warned about: This is our conflict-ridden Negative Emotional Footprint, the adverse ways we human beings often treat and affect each other. "
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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pasayten
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Re: The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by pasayten »

Alf,

And your statement of...
"We reproduce inaccurately, and there are not the correct influences to force each generation to be more athletic and smart."
is for what purpose? Are you implying that humankind would be better if we reproduced "accurately"?
Are you the result of inaccurate reproduction? What would an accurate reproduction look like?
Boy that opens a can of worms...
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Ray Peterson
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mister_coffee
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Re: The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by mister_coffee »

alfrandell wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:16 am ... i am not sure about the intent here. ...
I've followed Cliff Mass' blog for some years, and his position on the topic has been very consistent He knows that climate change is real and is happening, but he is pretty emphatic that because of local geographic conditions, we are unlikely to see major changes in the local climate of the PNW for some years, most likely after 2040.

In the end it comes down to what you define as a "major change".

Three observations:

Over the last thirty-odd years, I've definitely noticed that high-elevation hiking is opening up sooner. Places that were typically full of snow until mid-July are now frequently accessible in early July. And even when we have very high snowpack that hasn't translated into later trail openings.

The other observation is local to the valley. It used to be unremarkable to have a week or more where the *high* temperature barely reached 0F or the low single digits, and overnight lows would easily be -20F. That hasn't happened for a long time.

I've noticed that some permanent snowfields that provided excellent summer skiing are no longer permanent.

So I don't know if those qualify as "major changes".
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
Fun CH
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Re: The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by Fun CH »

Also from the blog post"

"What about the future? If we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the Pacific will eventually warm and that WILL reduce the snowpack."

I gathered from reading that blog post that the Pacific ocean is so large that it hasn't shown significant Heating yet, as opposed to the Atlantic Ocean.

But it will happen unless overly consumptive Lifestyles here in the US and other weathly nations change.

We know that won't happen.
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding--Nick Lowe
Can't talk to a man who don't want to understand--Carol King
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mister_coffee
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Re: The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by mister_coffee »

Also from that blog post:
PS; There are several comments/questions about retreating glaciers. Glaciers respond to a much longer time scale of climate change than annual snow. Most of the retreating glaciers in our region have been retreating since the early 20th century, well before human emissions of greenhouse gases were significant. Most are responding to the end of the Little Ice Age, a period of cooler temperatures and more that ended in the late 1800s.
I'm not so sure of that. Geophysically, glaciers happen when there is a location where local snowfall exceeds local snowmelt. Since on the average winter temperatures are higher it is plausible that areas where local snowfall exceed local snowmelt would at least be smaller. A smaller accumulation zone, over time, would cause glaciers to recede. Also, the fact that no trend shows increasing snowfall (as shown in that blog post) means that the higher temperatures aren't causing more snowfall to make up for the higher melt rate.
:arrow: David Bonn :idea:
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pasayten
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The Northwest Snowpack Trend of the Past Fifty Years

Post by pasayten »

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/03/ ... 7xqKD2mOdg

Interesting graph...
weather.png
weather.png (360.94 KiB) Viewed 3390 times

"So even with unrealistically high CO2 emissions (assuming major increases in coal use through the entire century and little use of renewables), there are only modest declines through 2050 (about 25%). A more realistic simulation would probably move the 2050 values to 2100.

I believe the above is the best estimate regarding Cascade mountain snowpack change available and consistent with the peer-reviewed literature (including papers I have authored on the subject). I am sure that the activist crowd (e.g. 350Seattle, Charles Mudede at The Stranger) will start calling me names--like "climate denier" for providing it to you. These folks can be very destructive. For example, 350 Seattle and the climate justice crowd were able to pressure a fearful KNKX management team into removing my weather segment because the activists wanted the truth suppressed.

But no matter where you are on the political spectrum, you deserve the truth and society needs truth to make the best decisions and plan for the future.

PS; There are several comments/questions about retreating glaciers. Glaciers respond to a much longer time scale of climate change than annual snow. Most of the retreating glaciers in our region have been retreating since the early 20th century, well before human emissions of greenhouse gases were significant. Most are responding to the end of the Little Ice Age, a period of cooler temperatures and more that ended in the late 1800s."
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