Guilty donnies support slipping?

[mister_coffee]

Many polls only call land lines. And nobody in their right mind answers the phone when they don't recognize the phone number anyway. That's why polling organizations are going away from phone polls and towards other approaches. All of the "other approaches" suffer from issues of sample size (usually it becomes very expensive to have a representative sample size) and self-selection bias (they rely on people volunteering to be in the polls, left unsaid is that the opinions of people who volunteer might well be different from the population as a whole).

[PAL]

Hey, has anyone ever been polled here? I haven't.

[just-jim]

If that number holds up (and it is consistent with polls in other states) Trump is in a tough spot. Or rather, a tougher spot.

I do think we shouldn't lean too hard on the polls, whether they are in our favor or not. A lot of the information we are getting from them, or at least our interpretation of them, is inconsistent and doesn't make much sense. That points to deep systematic errors across a lot of different polls -- which implies we don't really know anything.

I agree completely. Polls have, in the past, been - at best - sort of a bellwether. But they do seem to indicate direction, if not intensity.
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[mister_coffee]

...11% said they would vote for Biden in November and another 8% said they wouldn’t vote for either Trump or Biden...

If that number holds up (and it is consistent with polls in other states) Trump is in a tough spot. Or rather, a tougher spot.

I do think we shouldn't lean too hard on the polls, whether they are in our favor or not. A lot of the information we are getting from them, or at least our interpretation of them, is inconsistent and doesn't make much sense. That points to deep systematic errors across a lot of different polls -- which implies we don't really know anything.

[just-jim]

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It appears some republicans are waking up…..

“ Trump, who is the only person still in the Republican race, won all five of today’s Republican races. But the results showed that his support is soft. Results are still coming in, but as I write this, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who has suspended her campaign, received between 13% and 20% of the vote, Florida governor Ron DeSantis—who has also suspended his campaign—picked up votes, and “none of the names shown” got more than 5% in Kansas.

Even in Ohio, where Trump’s preferred Senate candidate won, Trump received less than 80% of the Republican vote. After NBC News conducted an exit poll in Ohio, MSNBC producer Kyle Griffin reported that of Ohio Republican primary voters—who are typically the most committed party members—11% said they would vote for Biden in November and another 8% said they wouldn’t vote for either Trump or Biden.”

https://open.substack.com/pub/heatherco ... ch-19-2024

Elsewhere, it’s reported that Biden is out raising $$$ by 3 to 1 over pee-pants. And the Dems have a far larger cash account going into the race.
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